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May 5, 2003 / August 2008 I realize that Madonna fans like to crow and harp that Madonna's career now spans approximately 25 years, despite the many predictions during the 1980s, and part of the 1990s, by average "Joe Blow" anti-Madonna-ists and professional movie and music critics that she would be washed up and soon forgotten. I have never been one of those. I have always kept my fingers crossed hoping for Madonna's career to go down the toilet, but never exactly sure when or if it would happen. This may be because I am more of a realist than most of the other anti-Madonna-ists. I predict that Madonna will always be famous, even though her career is, apparently, cooling off, and has been so since, I would estimate, the mid-1990s. Madonna will most likely continue to be famous for a decade, or even longer, after her death. Madonna's career, as of 2008, has definitely showed signs of dimming. When American radio stations refused to play songs from her 2005 album Confessions on a Dance Floor, incensed fans began an online petition in protest. The 2008 album Hard Candy quicky fell down the American charts after the first week, and songs from it receive little to no air-play on American radio stations. Even the first week, apparent success of Hard Candy in the United States belies more cracks in the popularity foundation: The only reason Hard Candy -and other more recent Madonna albums- did decently its first week of release in the United States is that fans make a concerted effort to buy multiple copies of it. One can find them on their Madonna blogs and sites admitting to the practice and encouraging others to do so as well, so as to give Madonna's albums an artificial bounce on the sales and numbers charts. Figures such as 1930s / 1940s movie stars Greta Garbo and Marlene Dietrich remained famous even after their careers ended. It is unlikely that either one could have continued to draw in large audiences to films, had they still made films into their twilight. Dietrich, as it so happens, after leaving films, began performing in lounge show acts later in her career before finally quitting performing altogether (aside from one or two guest appearances in films in the 1970s). People have always retained an interest in the Greta Garbos and Marlene Dietrichs of the entertainment world and always will. Some people today may go and rent an old Garbo movie or catch an old Dietrich film on cable. I believe that such people are rare though, as most today are probably more familiar with names like Julia Roberts, Reese Witherspoon, and Meg Ryan than they are with names like Betty Grable, "The Swedish Sphinx" (Greta Garbo), or "The Look" (Lauren Bacall). The occurrence of people renting and watching old Garbo movies is, however, more an evidence of nostalgia and a love for the classics. It is not necessarily an indication that people, other than die hard fans, would have wanted to shell out their money to attend shows put on by the middle aged to elderly Garbo or Dietrich back decades ago while both women were still alive. Exceptions to this phenomenon in our day may include people willing to sit through older Las Vegas acts, like Wayne Newton or Tom Jones, or performances of the old country singers in Branson, Missouri. The British rock band the Rolling Stones is most likely the single greatest exception of them all (and yes, I do wish they'd retire for good; Mick and Keith's faces both look like relief maps of the Grand Canyon). Even 60-ish Cher gave a "farwell" tour this past year. I maintain, though, that the overall rule appears to be that the longer a celebrity stays in the spotlight, the less their contemporary public remains interested in them. This observation is not meant to apply to celebrities who died decades ago and who still maintain a strong grip on people today. I have in mind for this category such celebrities as Marilyn Monroe, James Dean, and Elvis, and, to a lesser degree, those like Buddy Holly. I do not have in mind someone like Madonna who is alive now and who still maintains a fan base, albeit a shrinking one. To put this differently, Madonna is now, as I write this in May 2003, 44 years old, and I see her gaining very, very few new fans in the next 40 odd years or so (this is assuming she remains alive during the next 40 or so years). I do not see her captivating public imagination to the same degree as she once did in the mid 1980s to early 1990s. Say Madonna should die at age 85. I can then see interest in her beginning to surge a little by young adults around the year 2044 upwards to 2070. I would not be surprised if some of these young adults of the future became curious about Madonna, these same individuals being the ones who were not alive during the time she was (or else were born near the last years of her life)-- -- and before you know it, they will form new Madonna fan clubs, new Maddy fan sites will sprout up (though there may not be as many as there are now), and people will begin writing more biographies about her and such. The public may always hold a glimmer of interest in certain celebrities, but their attention, overall, will fade. To further prove my point:
Dietrich was very famous in the 1930s and 1940s, and, apparently, somewhat during the 1950s. Dietrich died in the late 1980s or early 1990s (if I am not mistaken), but during this time period, was the public more interested in Dietrich or Madonna? During that time period, who were the media covering more of, Dietrich or Madonna? Who made it to more magazine covers during the 1980s and 1990s, Dietrich or Madonna? If you answered correctly by saying "Madonna," then you see what is in store for Madonna in the future. I preface my following comments by saying I am not a Britney Spears fan (but I do not hate her, either: I do not have a strong opinion on her either way, and outside of her Pepsi commercials and "Baby Hit Me One More Time" video and song, I am mostly unfamiliar with her work), so I have no pro- Britney Spears agenda to push: In the past 3 or 4 years, people seem a tad more interested in what Britney Spears does than what Madonna does (this has been true even during Britney'd meltdowns in 2007), and this situation will only increase in the future, (if not with Spears than with some other celebrity, whomever happens to catch the public's fancy at the time). The Colombian pop singer Shakira seems to be getting more coverage currently, so maybe she will be the one to replace Spears and/or Madonna (and no, I am not a Shakira fan either). Who knows? I for one will not be one of the Madonna-haters who will be unrealistic and completely write her off and say that she will fall totally out of sight. She is far too famous for that. At the same time though, I have to disagree with the rabid, extremist Madonna fans or with the journalists and reporters who admire Madonna and Madonna's longevity in the entertainment industry. They seem to think that the world will continue to be endlessly fascinated by every move Madonna makes, and that Madonna can never lose her status. (I think we have already seen evidence of Madonna's status slip already, to an extent.) Madonna will, eventually, stop being as big a spectacle, though I think I can justifiably argue that the waning of her popularity and hold on the media and the public's imagination has already started to slow down, beginning back in the mid to late 1990s. Madonna will simply not sell as many records from this point on, if she even continues to make new records.
I can forsee Madonna deciding at some stage stopping her recording career altogether, even if she does stick it out into her 60s, like the Rolling Stones and Cher. I have a hunch that before hitting her 60s, Madonna will decide to occupy her time, and rely on her investments to earn income, rather than continue making her own albums and going on concert tours. She will probably write more children's books, take up painting as a hobby, and that sort of thing. And what do you know: as of March 16, 2003, a Rolling Stone album reviewer came to the same conclusion as I did. The reviewer remarks:
I think rumors were in the late 1980s that Madonna's quest for movie stardom was not purely ego (though that did play a part, you can better believe), but that making films is not as exhausting as going on world rock tours, and it's probably cheaper -- and one reason cited at the time is that it is more difficult to keep coming up with pop songs that sell well. I predict that Madonna is apt to get news coverage in the future mainly when her daughter starts getting involved in questionable behavior, say, for example, drugs, imprisonment, and so on, or if she decides to act in movies or make record albums. I am sure we can expect eventually to see headlines such as "Madonna's daughter to pose nude for Playboy!" When her son, Rocco gets older and gets hauled to jail on charges of rape or cocaine possession (and you know he will, unless he totally rejects his mother's hedonistic lifestyle), Madonna's name will make the papers then. As time marches on and Madonna loses the limelight and the popularity, I have no doubt that she will get the occasional, small mention in news blurbs in the paper, a lot like Garbo did after quitting the film business. After quitting, Garbo would, at times, go on walks down city streets, but she would generally ignore anyone who approached her for an autograph and the like -- the point is that while her window shopping sprees would get some press in the gossip columns, they would not garner major headlines as before. Her star had dimmed. The same will happen to Madonna. As I have made note of on the discussion board, Madonna is not the only celebrity to remain famous for over twenty years and to continue to put out new albums. Journalists continue to behave as though Madonna is the first (or only) person over the age of 40 to remain in physical shape, which is false. See these threads for examples: Madonna
Beaten in Musical Charts, Sales Numbers, etc
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